In first 100 days, Trump has alienated Ukraine and emboldened Russia

WARSAW, Poland – Donald Trump promised to broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia within “24 hours” of returning to the White House.

Three months in and despite a brief Easter truce announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the war is still raging, with the prospect of a ceasefire more uncertain than ever.

The US president has failed to extract any major concessions from Moscow, despite repeated talks between his administration and Russian officials, and publicly accused Ukraine’s wartime leader Volodymyr Zelensky of being a “dictator”.

He has meanwhile embarked on a quest to warm ties with Putin that has alienated Kyiv and driven a wedge between Washington and Europe.

Many in Russia are jubilant at the prospect of closer ties with the White House.

While in Ukraine the idea of long-term peace has faded.

“Nothing is happening. In real terms, people hear sirens every day, see bombs, and people get killed,” the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, told AFP.

“Putin is basically taking everyone for a ride,” he said.

Since Trump’s inauguration in January, US officials have held several rounds of talks with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in an attempt to reach a truce.

In the meantime, Russia has kept up strikes on Ukraine unabated, killing dozens of people in ballistic missile attacks in the past two weeks alone.

Ukraine’s army has also lost its grip on territory in Russia’s western Kursk region, it’s only notable bargaining chip.

“So far, there have been no changes, actually in our city it has only gotten worse,” Anna Klyshkina, a 29-year-old photographer from Ukraine’s Sumy said of Trump.

On Sunday, two Russian ballistic missiles slammed into her city, killing 35 people and wounding more than 100 others in one of the deadliest attacks in months.

– ‘He’s a showman’ –

There has been little tangible progress on a ceasefire despite Trump’s push.

Putin rejected a joint US-Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional and full ceasefire put to him in March.

Both sides agreed to halt strikes on energy targets, though no formal agreement was ever put in place, both accused the other of violating it and Russia said Friday that the order had “expired”.

Moscow’s army has continued its grinding advance across the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, albeit at a slower pace than at the end of last year.

It has also pushed Kyiv’s troops almost completely out of the Kursk region and advanced into the frontier areas of Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region.

Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr said he always had a “negative” opinion of Trump.

“And it remains so,” the 22-year-old told AFP, sitting on a bench in Sumy on his break.

“He’s not a politician, he’s a showman,” he said.

The Trump administration briefly cut military aid to Ukraine in March, dealing a major blow to Kyiv.

Trump pauses aid to Ukraine after Zelensky clash

The decision was a stunning reversal of Joe Biden’s policy of doing “whatever it takes, as long as it takes” to support Ukraine.

Trump has also repeatedly echoed Russian talking points, calling at one point for new elections to replace Zelensky, whom he falsely claimed had a “four percent approval rating”.

Tensions between the two came to head in February, when Trump berated Zelensky in a televised meeting at the Oval Office and told him he was being “disrespectful”, shocking Washington’s allies.

Days after Russia’s deadly attack on Sumy, Trump renewed his criticism of Zelensky and Ukraine.

“You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size,” he said, referring to Zelensky. Russia invaded its neighbour in February 2022.

– ‘What is missing is peace’ –

Trump has also lashed out at Russia, ordering it to “get moving” on securing a deal and telling NBC News last month that he was “pissed off” with Putin.

But the tone remains more conciliatory than before.

The Kremlin said in March that Trump’s dramatic shift in foreign policy largely aligned with its vision, after Washington sided with Moscow twice at the United Nations.

For those living in the small Russian town of Vereya, the rapprochement gave a sense of hope.

Alisa, a 20-year-old waitress, said “everything” would be fine for Russia.

“What I heard on the news is that there were talks between Putin and Trump and they were very successful — as I think they were, in my opinion. And I think we’re going to do very well because of that,” she said.

“What is missing is peace.”

Elena Solodkaya, 37, was more sceptical.

“You shouldn’t put your hopes in politicians,” she said.

“On Trump, no.”